Bayern Munich replace Julian Nagelsmann with Thomas Tuchel - But will it work?

Bayern have sacked Nagelsmann and replaced him with Tuchel. We have broken down the full story and ask the important question on whether this was the right move by the German giants.

Much like Julian Nagelsmann, Bayern Munich fans woke up to a new reality on Friday morning. The decision-makers at the Säbener Straße had concluded that they could no longer work together with the 35-year-old bench boss and decided to replace him with Thomas Tuchel. And just like Bayern fans, Nagelsmann found out via the internet that he was now going to be sacked, thanks to an untimely leak within the Bayern hierarchy. 

Nagelsmann arrived at the Bayern HQ at the Säbener Straße less than 12 hours after the news was made public to be officially informed about the news that he was no longer the head coach of Germany’s record champions. It all seemed rushed but replacing Nagelsmann with Tuchel seemed to have been in the works for some time. The Friday appointment, for example, was already on the calendar earlier this week. 

The autopsy of what went for Nagelsmann is still ongoing. But several factors played a role and were already discussed in great length in yesterday’s emergency Gegenpressing Podcast. 

Several key factors, however, do stand out. First, there was Nagelsmann’s off-the-pitch behavior, which was not always deemed statesmanlike by the Bayern bosses. Second, there was the inconsistency of the squad. Third, the lack of talent development, with younger players like Mathys Tel and Ryan Gravenberch, in particular, struggling this season. Fourth, there was an inability of Nagelsmann to take on criticism from his bosses. And finally, the Bayern hierarchy was unimpressed by Nagelsmann’s reactions to defeats—the bench boss going skiing after losing to Leverkusen, for example, may have been the final straw. 

Those five key factors played a significant role in why Bayern decided to end their €45 million experiment and replace Nagelsmann with Tuchel. 

Manuel Veth @ManuelVeth

The figures behind the Nagelsmann sacking are staggering! 🤯 💶 #Bayern paid €25m (including bonuses) to sign him from #RBLeipzig 💶 Nagelsmann earned around €10m a season 💶 The club will have to continue to pay that salary until 2026 or until he finds a new club

“This was the most difficult decision of my time as sporting director at Bayern,” director of sport Hasan Salihamidzic, who was key in signing the 35-year-old from Leipzig in a record deal for a head coach, said on Friday in an official statement. “I have had an open, trusting, friendly relationship with Julian from day one. I regret the separation from Julian. But after a thorough analysis of the sporting development of our team, especially since January, and with the experience of the second half of the previous season, we have now decided together to release Julian."

Salihamidzic was one of the key personalities in signing Nagelsmann in 2021. The Bayern director of sport was praised this season for his very successful transfer policy, strengthening his profile significantly after a turbulent start with the club. The Nagelsmann sacking, however, has put the Bosnian back in the spotlight, and the press in Munich has already started to ask the tough questions, openly questioning whether Salihamidzic will survive in his job long-term.

For now, it appears that the Bayern bosses stand behind the decision. Bayern CEO Oliver Kahn, for example, emphasized that the board made the decision together to sack Nagelsmann and hire Tuchel. 

"When we signed Julian Nagelsmann for FC Bayern in the summer of 2021, we were convinced that we would work with him on a long-term basis—and that was the goal of all of us right up to the end,” Kahn said in a statement released by the club. “Julian shares our aspiration to play successful and attractive football. But now we have come to the realization that the quality of our squad—despite winning the league last year—has shown less and less often. After the World Cup, we played less and less successfully and attractively."

Notice the frequency of the word WE in the statement released by Bayern. Make no mistake, that statement will have been carefully curated, highlighting that the board, for now, will remain unified in their decisions, not singling out either Salihamidzic or Kahn. 

The second part of Kahn’s statement was also telling. "The strong fluctuations in performance put our goals in danger this season, but also beyond this season,” Kahn said. “That's why we reacted now.”

That part of the statement is very telling and offers a small glimpse of what happened inside the halls of the Bayern HQ at the Säbener Straße. Internally, the Bayern bosses had discussed replacing Nagelsmann for Tuchel for some time; in fact, the first rumors suggesting a change came about in the fall during Oktoberfest when Bayern were on a run of bad form. 

It was during that time that the telling photo at the Oktoberfest with Nagelsmann, Salihamidzic, and Kahn was shot. It looked like a photo of a marriage that had gone sour, and it was also around that time that Tuchel, who was sacked by Chelsea earlier that month, was linked to the Bayern job. 

Bayern & Germany @iMiaSanMia

Nagelsmann, however, would turn it around, but doubts remained, and, in the background, Bayern remained in contact with the Tuchel camp. In fact, sources suggest that a break with Nagelsmann was always likely this summer, the start of the season, the off-field shenanigans, and the recent bad run of form had caused too much of a rift.  

The reason the club acted now, however, was the reality that Tuchel might not have been available in the summer. Although the 49-year-old moved to Munich a few weeks ago—Tuchel is Bavarian and was born not far from the capital in Krumbach—he has increasingly been linked with a move to other clubs.  

In other words, if Bayern wanted to sign Tuchel, they were given the signal that they had to do this either now or never. With that in mind, Bayern acted fast, trying to avoid a scenario like 2018 when they missed out on signing Tuchel.

It was then the window of opportunity closing that led to this rapid turn of events over the last few days culminating in Nagelsmann being replaced by Tuchel. But what will that ultimately mean for Bayern, a club that has won eight out of eight Champions League games this season and is just one point behind Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga? 

Winning the Champions League might have been a big reason for Bayern to bring in Tuchel. The 49-year-old has demonstrated that he can successfully navigate the competition. In 2020, Tuchel’s PSG was narrowly beaten by Bayern in the final. One year later, Tuchel won the competition with Chelsea, beating Man City in the final. 

The same Man City, by the way, Bayern will face in the quarterfinals of this year’s competition. And despite Nagelsmann’s fantastic record in the competition, some Bayern bosses were concerned that the 35-year-old could be outcoached by Pep Guardiola like it was the case against Villarreal under Unai Emery last year or, more recently, by the likes of Gladbach’s Daniel Farke or Leverkusen’s Xabi Alonso. 

Tuchel is considered more pragmatic in his tactical approach. Going through his last three major appointments at Dortmund, PSG, and Chelsea show a big variety of tactical approaches. At Dortmund, his game was mostly possession-based and extremely dominant as his side came close to competing with Guardiola’s Bayern during his first year at the club. At PSG, Tuchel managed to press superstars Kylian Mbappé and Neymar into a tactical system, and at Chelsea, his side was more reactionary, playing defensive astute football that would ultimately win the Champions League title.  

PSG and Chelsea will also have given Tuchel the necessary experience to navigate a club like Bayern. At PSG, Tuchel learned to navigate a club with significant geopolitical power that is at the crossroads of French and Qatari cooperation. At Chelsea, Tuchel dealt well with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and then was the face of the difficult transition period after Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. In fact, many Chelsea supporters still consider it a mistake that American owner Todd Boehly fired Tuchel. 

The Bayern bosses believe that all those experiences will have turned Tuchel into the sort of statesman that Ottmar Hitzfeld and Jupp Heynckes were for the club. They also hope that Tuchel can reunite a dressing room that increasingly saw Nagelsmann critically. 

Bayern bosses call this “losing the dressing room,” a common term used in US sports and something that is a very specific killer for head coaches employed at the Säbener Straße. Carlo Ancelotti and Niko Kovac famously lost their jobs after falling out with Thomas Müller. Nagelsmann’s big mistake was starting a conflict with the currently injured Manuel Neuer. 

Whether choosing Tuchel to bring together the dressing room will work remains to be seen, however. Dortmund defender Mats Hummels, for example, famously fled from Tuchel, joining Bayern in 2016. Furthermore, not all Bayern players are happy that Nagelsmann was fired, Joshua Kimmich, whose position in the hierarchy was significantly strengthened this season, voiced his surprise about his head coach being fired while being with the national team. "I can only say that Julian Nagelsmann is an outstanding coach,” Kimmich said “He's easily in my top three best coaches." 

Getting the pro-Nagelsmann camp on board then will be Tuchel’s most important job when he officially starts his job on Monday. Tuchel’s ability to do this quickly might determine whether his time in Munich will be a success. 

Then after just a few training sessions, Tuchel will face his former club Dortmund in what could be a key match to decide the Bundesliga title. That title will be almost of secondary concern for Bayern this season. First and foremost, there is the Champions League, where Tuchel will have to get past Man City and then will face either his former club, Chelsea or, alternatively, Real Madrid, in the semifinal.

Long-term, the Bayern bosses hope to have found a coach that can finally bring some sort of stability to the head coach position. The sort of stability the club hoped to have found first in Hansi Flick and then in Nagelsmann.  

Tuchel is now the third “project” at the club in a row; his job will be to return the club to the sort of tactical foundation outlined by Louis van Gaal, Jupp Heynckes, and Pep Guardiola. Tuchel will also be asked to develop players, guide Jamal Musiala to a world-class level, and ensure that Tel and Gravenberch get playing time and that promising players like Arijon Ibrahimovic, Paul Wanner, and Tarek Buchmann get slowly integrated into the first team.  

For both sides, this is about stability. Tuchel too, after all, has had his turbulent times at PSG and Chelsea. Perhaps finding stability can be the common denominator to make this pact work. But make no mistake, Tuchel will have to hit the ground running for things to calm down in Munich, a loss or draw against Dortmund and an exit against Man City, and the vultures will be circling, perhaps asking important questions about the people higher up in the Bayern hierarchy. 

Manuel Veth @ManuelVeth

Anyhow this beauty was sent to me by a @Gegenpress_Pod subscriber. FC Hollywood baby, it’s back! #Bayern

Either way, FC Hollywood is now in full action. Germany’s most famous club has added another storyline to what has already been a fascinating season, and whether or not Tuchel will work out, the international spotlight will be on the Bundesliga and the upcoming Klassiker on April 1.